Talk to Ian Happ about his deficiencies and he’ll recall nearly every specific moment where things didn’t go his way. He understands the game and the data at a level that isn’t the norm for big leaguers. That stuff is usually left for new-age coaches or the wonks in research and development.
But Happ is a rare breed. There’s no need to be hesitant in pointing out that his defensive numbers in left field aren’t looking great a year after he won a Gold Glove. Happ knows.
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“They’re horrible!” Happ exclaimed. “Oh my god. It’s offensive. I liked the defensive metrics last year, I hate them this year.”
Happ knows it’s a small sample size, so he’s not getting too bent out of shape. But he can recall all the miscues in the midst of a stream-of-consciousness answer about these numbers. There was the time his knee got stuck in the ground as he tried to make a sliding catch. Manny Machado hit a ball that got above the lights and Happ lost it. In Los Angeles, Freddie Freeman hit one that Happ had a depth perception issue with. Jon Berti has taken third right in front of him twice and instead of trying to make a spectacular throw to third he instead played it safe and made sure the runner didn’t get to second.
Those are the plays Happ knows he’s “getting crushed for.” After being +13 by Defensive Runs Saved and +2 by Outs Above Average, Happ is -5 and -3 in those categories, respectively, a month-plus into the season.
“When those add up and you don’t get the opportunity on the back end to nix those, you just get crushed,” Happ said. “I’m hoping that it’s just a tough month and I’m able to bounce back from that. I’m definitely frustrated. When you follow that stuff, digging yourself a hole on the defensive side that you have to climb out of stinks. I don’t feel like there are too many plays that I’ve misplayed or done the wrong thing. But in the early going sometimes those can really add up on you.”
Happ also has seen his numbers from the right side of the plate. Overall, he’s hitting like an All-Star once again. But as a righty, he has a .129 batting average, 35.3 percent strikeout rate and 6 wRC+. He could just repeat himself on his defensive metrics when musing about these stats — horrible!
“A little bit of a small sample and I think the expected stats, for the first time in a while, are way above where they actually are,” Happ said. “There’s some line drives, balls hit hard that haven’t fallen”
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Happ was once mocked in 2021 for pointing to his expected stats, but perhaps he had a point then as he does now. There is less hard contact from the right side compared to hitting from the left side, but not much more soft contact — it’s a lot of “medium” contact. He’s on the ground more from the right side, but he’s not wrong that there’s bad luck here, too.
His xwOBA is 98 points higher than the .177 wOBA he’s posted from the right side this year. That still wouldn’t be great, but it would propel his overall numbers to even another level from the impressive spot he already sits. Again, Happ can list off the near misses. A hard-hit ball in Miami, Machado snagged a liner with a leaping play, one just missed off the end of the bat in D.C., one hit over 100 mph and at a 27-degree launch angle in Oakland the other way.
“That’s a homer in some places some days,” Happ said of the one at the Coliseum. “If some of that stuff falls, you feel decent about where you are. Combination of all that stuff and I felt pretty out of whack for the first 10 or so at-bats. Punched out a lot and got pitched pretty tough. It’s such a small sample and you’re doing it sometimes once a week.”
But Happ doesn’t pretend all is perfect from that side of the plate. He knows he needs to really click.
“It’s some of the timing stuff, probably a little late. I just gotta get on time and feel that a couple of times in a row and then it’s like, ‘All right, that’s the right place to be.’ When you have struggles and you’re aware of it, you get a little defensive.”
Mind you, this all comes with Happ leading the team with a 149 wRC+, 25th in all of baseball. He added another walk (only five players have a better walk rate than his 17.9 percent) and a single in Saturday’s 4-2 comeback win over the Marlins that got the Cubs back to a game over .500 at 17-16. He’s the Cubs’ most consistent producer thus far this season and locked into his role as the No. 3 hitter in what’s turned out to be an unexpectedly potent, if inconsistent, lineup.
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Cody Bellinger had an MVP-caliber April. Seiya Suzuki was the big signing a year ago and is expected to emerge as a star. Dansby Swanson had an insanely hot start and comes with a big contract and a winning pedigree. Nico ho*rner is thriving in the leadoff spot and playing elite defense at second. All of that allowed Happ to go under the radar despite carrying over where he left off after last year’s brilliant season.
“A lot of those little details about what Happer does in the middle of our order kind of goes by the wayside because of the young kids coming, what Belli is doing, what Seiya is capable of, Nico at the top,” manager David Ross said. “He’s just sliding in and being very consistent. Getting on base and doing his thing. It’s been really rewarding for me in being able to make out a lineup and pencil him in every day. He’s really important to our success when he’s the type of player we’ve seen the last year and a half.”
It’s that knowledge of where he’ll hit and where he’s playing in the field that Happ believes is a big part of his success. Since the sell-off at the 2021 trade deadline, Happ has gotten that. Since that point, Happ has a 131 wRC+. The imperfections are pointed out because he knows he can correct them and be even better.
Happ knows baseball has a short memory. It’s a year-to-year sport. What happened last year can quickly be erased, both bad and good. Just ask Bellinger. Happ wasn’t going to rest on his laurels off just one good year. By getting off to another strong start, he’s starting to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke, that his extension was warranted and he’s emerged as the most reliable and consistent force in the Cubs’ lineup.
(Photo of Ian Happ hitting a two-run home run Friday: Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today)
Sahadev Sharma is a staff writer for The Athletic and covers the Chicago Cubs. Previously, Sahadev was a national baseball writer for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Chicago. Follow Sahadev on Twitter @sahadevsharma
